Genoa 1-4 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 47%, yet in-form Genoa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genoa vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Genoa haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fiorentina haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Genoa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Genoa, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2022, ended 0–6 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Fiorentina trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 37% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Fiorentina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.13 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 1.088 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.232. Data: 0 Genoa games / 38 Fiorentina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 47%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 2.13. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 20% | Fiorentina 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Genoa 1.13 / Fiorentina 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 1.088 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fiorentina xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Fiorentina kick off?
Genoa vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa 1 - 4 Fiorentina.
Where is Genoa vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Fiorentina part of?
Genoa vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 28% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Genoa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
28%
3.58
25%
3.95
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.54
Fiorentina xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Genoa and 1.54 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 11D 6L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. Genoa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (15W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. Fiorentina haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 12W 6D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.39 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Pre-Season
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Fiorentina away?
Genoa's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.21 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Genoa or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Fiorentina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 26%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Genoa and 37% for Fiorentina.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Genoa's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Genoa's recent games and 37% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Genoa 1-4 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.13 xG and Fiorentina 1.54 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 28% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 47%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Fiorentina 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.