Sassuolo 1-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 37%, yet in-form Fiorentina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sassuolo vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Fiorentina meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sassuolo 1W, Fiorentina 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 67% and Fiorentina 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 68% | Fiorentina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.24 xG and Fiorentina 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.943 / defence 0.974 | Fiorentina attack 1.055 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.181. Data: 75 Sassuolo games / 75 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fiorentina (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sassuolo 1.24 / Fiorentina 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.943 / def 0.974 | Fiorentina attack 1.055 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kick off?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 June 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo 1 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina part of?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sassuolo and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Fiorentina in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.94) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.05x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.64
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.45
1.21
Fiorentina xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.21 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 25W 20D 30L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 33W 16D 26L from 75 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.53 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (14W 10D 13L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 11W 8D 18L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 25W 20D 30L in their last 75 games (1.27 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 33W 16D 26L in their last 75 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Fiorentina away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.41 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 65%, Fiorentina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sassuolo) and 46% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sassuolo's games and 57% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sassuolo's recent games and 46% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sassuolo 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.24 xG and Fiorentina 1.21 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 68%, Fiorentina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.27 PPG, Fiorentina 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.