Empoli 0-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Hellas Verona at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hellas Verona haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.20 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Empoli have won 0, Hellas Verona 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 50% versus Hellas Verona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 37% | Hellas Verona 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.010 / defence 1.034 | Hellas Verona attack 0.862 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.194. Data: 38 Empoli games / 38 Hellas Verona games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Empoli 46% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 28%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Hellas Verona 3.57. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 50% | Hellas Verona 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 46% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.45 / Hellas Verona 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.010 / def 1.034 | Hellas Verona attack 0.862 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Empoli (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hellas Verona xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Empoli 0 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Empoli vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Hellas Verona part of?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 46% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 3 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.01) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.80
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.51
1.06
Hellas Verona xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Empoli and 1.06 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 13D 15L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. Empoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Hellas Verona's form line: 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. Hellas Verona haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.13 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 6D 11L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.84 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Pre-Season
Hellas Verona
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Hellas Verona away?
Empoli's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.47 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 42%, Hellas Verona 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Empoli) and 32% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 32% of games; Hellas Verona in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Empoli's recent matches and 53% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Empoli's recent games and 32% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.06 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 46% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 28%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Hellas Verona 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.13 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.