Lazio 0-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lazio have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lazio, 2.00 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lazio lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 36% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 44% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.67 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.066 / defence 0.948 | Genoa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.279. Data: 39 Lazio games / 1 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 24% | Genoa 23%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 4.35. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 40% | Genoa 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 52% | Draw 24% | Genoa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Lazio 1.67 / Genoa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.066 / def 0.948 | Genoa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Lazio (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Genoa xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Genoa kick off?
Lazio vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio 0 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Lazio vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Genoa part of?
Lazio vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 52% chance of winning, Genoa a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lazio and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lazio's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.85x) against Lazio's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.11
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
Genoa xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
22.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lazio and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lazio and 1.03 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio's recent record stands at 22W 8D 9L from 39 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 7L across 39 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Lazio against 1.90 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.38 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Genoa in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 games (1.90 PPG), while Genoa have gone 21W 11D 7L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Genoa away?
Lazio's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.95 PPG; Genoa away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Lazio or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Genoa in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Lazio
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 7, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lazio 3-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Genoa?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 47%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lazio) and 53% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Genoa in 37%; Genoa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lazio's recent matches and 47% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lazio's recent games and 53% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Genoa tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genoa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Lazio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Lazio 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.67 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lazio fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Genoa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 52% | Draw 24% | Genoa 23%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 44%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.90 PPG, Genoa 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.