Atalanta 2-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atalanta at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Atalanta are significantly better at Gewiss Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Atalanta's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Genoa's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Genoa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 50% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.68 xG and Genoa 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.114 / defence 0.776 | Genoa attack 0.775 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.164. Atalanta's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Atalanta games / 8 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 26% | Genoa 14%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 50% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 26% | Genoa 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Atalanta 1.68 / Genoa 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.114 / def 0.776 | Genoa attack 0.775 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Genoa xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 2 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 60% chance of winning, Genoa a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Atalanta 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.78x) against Atalanta's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.84
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.38
0.70
Genoa xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
37.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.70 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 23W 8D 15L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 23W 13D 10L from 46 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Atalanta against 1.78 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (12W 4D 6L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 9W 6D 7L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.37 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 23W 8D 15L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Genoa have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.82 PPG; Genoa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 59%, Genoa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atalanta) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 36%; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Atalanta's recent matches and 41% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atalanta's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Genoa tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genoa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Genoa 2-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.68 xG and Genoa 0.70 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Genoa attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 60% | Draw 26% | Genoa 14%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.67 PPG, Genoa 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.