Bologna 0-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 17 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Napoli have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bologna, 1.20 for Napoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 1 for Napoli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Napoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 60% | Napoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.00 xG and Napoli 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.904 / defence 1.154 | Napoli attack 0.941 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.546. Data: 20 Bologna games / 21 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 22% | Draw 25% | Napoli 53%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 1.89. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Napoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 22% | Draw 25% | Napoli 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.00 / Napoli 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.904 / def 1.154 | Napoli attack 0.941 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.546 • Poisson stance: Napoli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Napoli xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Napoli kick off?
Bologna vs Napoli kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 January 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Bologna 0 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Bologna vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Napoli part of?
Bologna vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 22% chance of winning, Napoli a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 0 | Napoli 1W.
What form are Bologna and Napoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Napoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.90x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (0.94x) against Bologna's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
22%
4.52
25%
4.01
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.68
1.68
Napoli xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
24.25
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bologna and 1.68 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 3D 9L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.10 points per game from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Napoli in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Napoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Napoli have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.60 PPG; Napoli away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Bologna or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Napoli in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Napoli have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 40%, Napoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bologna) and 60% (Napoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Napoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bologna's matches and 60% of Napoli's.
Do Bologna and Napoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Napoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.00 xG and Napoli 1.68 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Napoli attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 22% | Draw 25% | Napoli 53%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 60%, Napoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Napoli's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.