Empoli 1-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Napoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Napoli have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.40 (Napoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Empoli have won 3, Napoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Napoli in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Napoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Napoli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and Napoli 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.838 / defence 1.112 | Napoli attack 1.331 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.198. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Empoli games / 70 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 40% | Napoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Empoli 1.01 / Napoli 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.838 / def 1.112 | Napoli attack 1.331 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Napoli (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Napoli xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Napoli kick off?
Empoli vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Empoli 1 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Empoli vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Napoli part of?
Empoli vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 21% chance of winning, Napoli a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Empoli and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Napoli?
Record (5 meetings): Empoli 3W | Draws 0 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Empoli and Napoli in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Napoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
21%
4.78
25%
4.07
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.79
1.77
Napoli xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
28.16
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Empoli and 1.77 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 70 games, going 17W 20D 33L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.99 PPG from 70 outings (41W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 11W 8D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.03 points per game from 35 outings (21W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Napoli in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 17W 20D 33L in their last 70 games (1.01 PPG), while Napoli have gone 41W 16D 13L in their last 70 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.17 PPG; Napoli away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Empoli or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Napoli in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Napoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Napoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Empoli
0
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 4, Napoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 34%, Napoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Empoli) and 49% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 37%; Empoli have failed to score in 46% of games; Napoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Empoli's recent games and 49% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Napoli tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Napoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Napoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Napoli 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.01 xG and Napoli 1.77 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Napoli landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Napoli attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Napoli 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Napoli's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.