Genoa 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Lazio meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lazio have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Genoa against 1.50 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Genoa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lazio in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 2 for Lazio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Lazio — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 49% versus Lazio 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Lazio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.17 xG and Lazio 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.888 / defence 1.170 | Lazio attack 1.125 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.197. Data: 32 Genoa games / 70 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 27% | Draw 27% | Lazio 46%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Lazio 2.17. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 70% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 27% | Draw 27% | Lazio 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Genoa 1.17 / Lazio 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.888 / def 1.170 | Lazio attack 1.125 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Lazio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lazio kick off?
Genoa vs Lazio kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Genoa 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Genoa vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lazio part of?
Genoa vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 27% chance of winning, Lazio a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genoa and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Genoa and Lazio in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.12x) against Genoa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
27%
3.65
27%
3.74
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.58
Lazio xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Genoa and 1.58 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 30W 23D 17L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 37W 12D 21L from 70 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Genoa against 1.76 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.85 PPG from 34 outings (17W 12D 5L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 18W 4D 12L from 34 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.44 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Lazio in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lazio in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 30W 23D 17L in their last 70 games (1.61 PPG), while Lazio have gone 37W 12D 21L in their last 70 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lazio away?
Genoa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.85 PPG; Lazio away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Genoa or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lazio in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
7
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Lazio have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lazio 3-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Lazio 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Genoa) and 44% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lazio in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 41% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 44% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lazio tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lazio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.17 xG and Lazio 1.58 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Lazio attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 27% | Draw 27% | Lazio 46%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Lazio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.61 PPG, Lazio 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.