AS Roma 1-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 2.30 PPG versus Bologna's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AS Roma register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bologna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AS Roma, 2 for Bologna and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 49% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.45 xG and Bologna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.272 / defence 0.861 | Bologna attack 0.937 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.190. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 AS Roma games / 70 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 27% | Bologna 25%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 4.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 60% | Bologna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 27% | Bologna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG AS Roma 1.45 / Bologna 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.272 / def 0.861 | Bologna attack 0.937 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bologna xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 22 April 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 1 - 3 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 2 | Bologna 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.27) and Bologna's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.69
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
Bologna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.96 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 69 games, going 34W 16D 19L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.64 PPG from 69 outings (30W 23D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.71 PPG, Bologna on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 20W 6D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.33 points per game from 33 outings (11W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 34W 16D 19L in their last 69 games (1.71 PPG), while Bologna have gone 30W 23D 16L in their last 69 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 46%, Bologna 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AS Roma) and 64% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of AS Roma's games and 70% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AS Roma's recent games and 64% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bologna in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AS Roma 1-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.45 xG and Bologna 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.27 / defence 0.86 against Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 48% | Draw 27% | Bologna 25%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 49%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.71 PPG, Bologna 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.