Hellas Verona 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Udinese meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Udinese and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Udinese — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 44% | Udinese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.868 / defence 1.183 | Udinese attack 0.863 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.185. Data: 70 Hellas Verona games / 69 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 28% | Udinese 36%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 70% | Udinese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 28% | Udinese 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hellas Verona 1.20 / Udinese 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.868 / def 1.183 | Udinese attack 0.863 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Udinese (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Udinese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Hellas Verona 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Udinese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Udinese a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hellas Verona and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 3 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.86x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.52
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.41
1.21
Udinese xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.21 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 69 games, going 14W 19D 36L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.07 PPG from 69 outings (15W 29D 25L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.07 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 10W 8D 15L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.06 points per game from 33 outings (8W 11D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 14W 19D 36L in their last 69 games (0.88 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 29D 25L in their last 69 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Udinese away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.15 PPG; Udinese away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
5
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Udinese have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 61%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hellas Verona) and 39% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 39% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Udinese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Udinese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 28% | Udinese 36%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 44%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.88 PPG, Udinese 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.