Empoli 1-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 2.03 xG and Lazio 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lazio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 2.076 / away 1.481. Data: 0 Empoli games / 0 Lazio games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Empoli 48% | Draw 27% | Lazio 25%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Lazio 4.00. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 48% | Draw 27% | Lazio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Empoli 2.03 / Lazio 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lazio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 2.076 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Empoli (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lazio xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Lazio kick off?
Empoli vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Empoli 1 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Empoli vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Lazio part of?
Empoli vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 48% chance of winning, Lazio a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Empoli and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Lazio in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.85) and Lazio's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (0.85x) against Empoli's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.72
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.48
1.45
Lazio xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Empoli and 1.45 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Pre-Season
Lazio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Empoli
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 1-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 2.03 xG and Lazio 1.45 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lazio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 48% | Draw 27% | Lazio 25%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Lazio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.