Cagliari 2-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Spezia at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.54 xG and Spezia 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.631. Data: 0 Cagliari games / 0 Spezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 30% | Spezia 36%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Spezia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 30% | Spezia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Cagliari 1.54 / Spezia 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.631 • Poisson stance: Spezia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Spezia xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Spezia kick off?
Cagliari vs Spezia kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Spezia?
Cagliari 2 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Cagliari vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Spezia part of?
Cagliari vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 34% chance of winning, Spezia a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cagliari and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Spezia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.32
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.13
1.59
Spezia xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.59 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Pre-Season
Spezia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Spezia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cagliari
1
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Spezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Spezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Spezia 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cagliari and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 1, as Cagliari and Spezia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.54 xG and Spezia 1.59 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 30% | Spezia 36%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.