AS Roma 3-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.48 xG and Fiorentina 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 2.020. Data: 0 AS Roma games / 0 Fiorentina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 26% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 46%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.17. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 26% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG AS Roma 1.48 / Fiorentina 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.512 / away 2.020 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Fiorentina xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Fiorentina kick off?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma 3 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Fiorentina part of?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 26% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
26%
3.82
27%
3.66
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.45
1.97
Fiorentina xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
14%
7.20
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
4%
27.50
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.97 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Pre-Season
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
AS Roma have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Fiorentina 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.48 xG and Fiorentina 1.97 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 26% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 46%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.