Bologna 3-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.36 xG and Salernitana 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Salernitana attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 2.007. Data: 0 Bologna games / 0 Salernitana games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bologna 24% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 49%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Salernitana 2.04. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 24% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Bologna 1.36 / Salernitana 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Salernitana attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.392 / away 2.007 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Salernitana xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Salernitana kick off?
Bologna vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Bologna 3 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Bologna vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Salernitana part of?
Bologna vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 24% chance of winning, Salernitana a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bologna and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Salernitana in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bologna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.85x) against Bologna's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
24%
4.22
28%
3.61
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.32
1.96
Salernitana xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
3%
30.03
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bologna and 1.96 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Pre-Season
Salernitana
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Salernitana?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Salernitana 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Salernitana 3-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.36 xG and Salernitana 1.96 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Salernitana attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 24% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 49%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.