Empoli 4-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Juventus — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Juventus's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Empoli's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 2 for Juventus and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Juventus in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 58% versus Juventus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.94 xG and Juventus 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.940 / defence 1.067 | Juventus attack 0.984 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.130. Juventus's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Empoli games / 73 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 41%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Juventus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 40% | Juventus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Empoli 0.94 / Juventus 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.940 / def 1.067 | Juventus attack 0.984 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Juventus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Juventus xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juventus kick off?
Empoli vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Juventus?
Empoli 4 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Empoli vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juventus part of?
Empoli vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Juventus a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Empoli and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juventus?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Empoli and Juventus in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Juventus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.94x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
29%
3.50
31%
3.27
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.13
1.19
Juventus xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Empoli and 1.19 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 73 games, going 19W 23D 31L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.90 PPG from 73 outings (41W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 11W 9D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.72 points per game from 36 outings (18W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.52 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juventus in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 19W 23D 31L in their last 73 games (1.10 PPG), while Juventus have gone 41W 16D 16L in their last 73 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.17 PPG; Juventus away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Empoli or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Juventus in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when Juventus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
2
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Juventus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Juventus 4-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 64%, Juventus 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Empoli) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Empoli's games and 47% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Empoli's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juventus tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juventus in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Empoli run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Juventus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Juventus 4-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.94 xG and Juventus 1.19 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Juventus attack 0.98 / defence 0.77, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 41%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.