Sampdoria 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Empoli at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 0.60 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Empoli trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 46% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 51% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.99 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.762 / defence 1.205 | Empoli attack 0.793 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.104. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Sampdoria games / 72 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Empoli 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Sampdoria 0.99 / Empoli 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.762 / def 1.205 | Empoli attack 0.793 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Empoli xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Empoli kick off?
Sampdoria vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Sampdoria vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Empoli part of?
Sampdoria vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 33% chance of winning, Empoli a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sampdoria and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.76) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.24
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.04
1.05
Empoli xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.05 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 13W 14D 45L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 19W 22D 31L from 72 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.74 PPG, Empoli on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.81 PPG from 36 outings (7W 8D 21L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 13D 15L from 36 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Empoli in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 14D 45L in their last 72 games (0.74 PPG), while Empoli have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.81 PPG; Empoli away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
2
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Empoli?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 53%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sampdoria) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sampdoria's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Empoli tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.99 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Empoli attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 33% | Draw 31% | Empoli 36%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 51%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.74 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.