Cremonese 1-5 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cremonese lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.19 xG and Bologna 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.804 / defence 1.197 | Bologna attack 1.032 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Data: 35 Cremonese games / 73 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cremonese 1.19 / Bologna 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.804 / def 1.197 | Bologna attack 1.032 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bologna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Bologna kick off?
Cremonese vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Bologna?
Cremonese 1 - 5 Bologna.
Where is Cremonese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Bologna part of?
Cremonese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 32% chance of winning, Bologna a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Bologna in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.03x) against Cremonese's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.69
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.56
1.37
Bologna xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.37 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 24W 21D 28L from 73 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 28L across 73 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cremonese against 1.27 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 14W 10D 12L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 9W 9D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.19 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 24W 21D 28L in their last 73 games (1.27 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 21D 28L in their last 73 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Bologna away?
Cremonese's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.44 PPG; Bologna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 1-5 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Bologna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Bologna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cremonese) and 61% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 31% of games; Bologna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cremonese's games and 61% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cremonese's recent games and 61% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Bologna tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cremonese 1-5 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.19 xG and Bologna 1.37 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.37 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.27 PPG, Bologna 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.