Juventus 2-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventus and Cremonese meet at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Juventus are significantly better at Allianz Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Cremonese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 43% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 2.28 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.279 / defence 0.976 | Cremonese attack 0.959 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.112. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Juventus games / 34 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 65% | Draw 19% | Cremonese 16%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Cremonese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Cremonese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 65% | Draw 19% | Cremonese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Juventus 2.28 / Cremonese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.279 / def 0.976 | Cremonese attack 0.959 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Juventus (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cremonese xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Cremonese kick off?
Juventus vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Cremonese?
Juventus 2 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Juventus vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Cremonese part of?
Juventus vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 65% chance of winning, Cremonese a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Juventus and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Juventus and Cremonese in?
Juventus (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juventus's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.96x) against Juventus's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.27
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Juventus xG
Total xG
3.32
1.04
Cremonese xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
61.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Juventus and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Juventus and 1.04 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus's recent record stands at 40W 16D 16L from 72 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 27L across 72 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juventus have managed 22W 8D 6L from 36 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 10W 11D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.22 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 40W 16D 16L in their last 72 games (1.89 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 24W 21D 27L in their last 72 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Cremonese away?
Juventus's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.06 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Juventus or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cremonese in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 5-0 on 12 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Juventus
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Juventus 5-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Cremonese?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 39%, Cremonese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Juventus) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Juventus's recent matches and 61% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Juventus's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Cremonese tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Cremonese 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 2.28 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Cremonese attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 65% | Draw 19% | Cremonese 16%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.