Cremonese 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cremonese welcome Torino to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Torino — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Torino have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Torino are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cremonese have won 0, Torino 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Cremonese 0–1 Torino — a Torino win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Torino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Torino 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.13 xG and Torino 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.680 / defence 1.320 | Torino attack 0.931 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Torino's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Cremonese's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Torino's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 32 games and Torino's last 70.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Torino 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.38 | Draw 3.81 | Torino 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Torino 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Torino 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cremonese 1.13 / Torino 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.680 / def 1.320 | Torino attack 0.931 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Torino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Torino xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Torino FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Torino kick off?
Cremonese vs Torino kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Torino?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Cremonese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Torino part of?
Cremonese vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 30% chance of winning, Torino a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cremonese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.68) and Torino's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 32 games and Torino's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.81
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.56
1.44
Torino xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.44 for Torino, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 22W 23D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 21W 20D 29L from 70 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.27 PPG, Torino on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 34 home games (9W 15D 10L).
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 10D 16L from their last 34 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.09 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Torino in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 23D 25L in their last 70 games (1.27 PPG), while Torino have gone 21W 20D 29L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Torino away?
Cremonese's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.24 PPG; Torino away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Torino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Torino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 0, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Cremonese 0-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 65%, Torino 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 47% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Cremonese's recent matches and 44% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 47% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cremonese's recent matches and 71% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Torino finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.13 xG and Torino 1.44 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Torino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.68 / defence 1.32 against Torino attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Torino 44%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Torino 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.27 PPG, Torino 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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