Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cremonese face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Cremonese's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cremonese's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina have the stronger record — 3 wins to Cremonese's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Cremonese 0–1 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Fiorentina 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Fiorentina 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.99 xG and Fiorentina 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.628 / defence 1.111 | Fiorentina attack 0.916 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.159. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Fiorentina's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 28 games and Fiorentina's last 66.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 40%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.25 | Draw 3.43 | Fiorentina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cremonese 0.99 / Fiorentina 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.628 / def 1.111 | Fiorentina attack 0.916 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fiorentina xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cremonese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Cremonese 1 - 4 Fiorentina.
Where is Cremonese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Fiorentina part of?
Cremonese vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cremonese and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cremonese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.63x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.92x) against Cremonese's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 28 games and Fiorentina's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.43
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.17
1.18
Fiorentina xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.18 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 23D 22L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.36 PPG from 66 outings (24W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Cremonese against 1.36 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 9W 15D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.36 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 22L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Fiorentina away?
Cremonese's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.31 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fiorentina have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina on 16 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Fiorentina?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 0, Fiorentina have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 62%, Fiorentina 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cremonese) and 62% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Fiorentina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cremonese's games and 56% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cremonese and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cremonese's recent games and 62% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Cremonese's recent matches and 62% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.99 xG and Fiorentina 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.11 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 40%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Fiorentina 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.30 PPG, Fiorentina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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