Como 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on Como. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Como are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Fiorentina's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Como's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Como trading profile (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 58% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 54% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.96 xG and Fiorentina 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.961 / defence 1.457 | Fiorentina attack 1.188 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.346. Fiorentina's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Como games / 50 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 14% | Draw 19% | Fiorentina 68%. Fair-value odds: Como 7.14 | Draw 5.26 | Fiorentina 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Como 90% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 14% | Draw 19% | Fiorentina 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Como 0.96 / Fiorentina 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.961 / def 1.457 | Fiorentina attack 1.188 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Como xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Fiorentina xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Fiorentina kick off?
Como vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Como 0 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Como vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Fiorentina part of?
Como vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Como a 14% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Como and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Como and Fiorentina in?
Como (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Como vs Fiorentina?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Como's attack at 0.96x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Como's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
14%
7.32
19%
5.40
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Como xG
Total xG
3.29
2.33
Fiorentina xG
7.32
14%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
10%
10.29
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
1%
75.32
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Como and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Como and 2.33 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Como's recent record stands at 23W 14D 13L from 50 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 13L across 50 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.66 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Como have managed 13W 7D 3L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 9W 6D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.72 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Como have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Fiorentina away?
Como's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Como's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
0
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Como and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Como 1-2 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 70%, Fiorentina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Como) and 30% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 35%; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Como's games and 44% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Como's recent games and 30% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Como 0-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.96 xG and Fiorentina 2.33 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Como fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.96 / defence 1.46 against Fiorentina attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 14% | Draw 19% | Fiorentina 68%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 54%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.66 PPG, Fiorentina 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.