Genoa 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Como have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 0 for Como and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Como 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 43% | Como 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.34 xG and Como 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.815 / defence 1.074 | Como attack 0.705 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.315. Data: 49 Genoa games / 11 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 28% | Como 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Como 3.57. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Como 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 45% | Draw 28% | Como 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Genoa 1.34 / Como 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.815 / def 1.074 | Como attack 0.705 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Genoa (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Como xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Como kick off?
Genoa vs Como kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Como?
Genoa 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Genoa vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Como part of?
Genoa vs Como is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 45% chance of winning, Como a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Como?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Como 0W.
What form are Genoa and Como in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Como (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Genoa vs Como?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Como's attack (0.70x) against Genoa's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.63
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.34
0.99
Como xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Genoa and 0.99 for Como, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 16D 19L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.67 PPG from 49 outings (23W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 8W 9D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.43 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Como in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Como have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.32 PPG; Como away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Genoa
4
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Como have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Como last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Como.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 56%, Como 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Genoa) and 48% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Como tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Como in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 12, as Genoa and Como drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.34 xG and Como 0.99 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Como attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 45% | Draw 28% | Como 28%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 43%, Como 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.