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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena than their overall form suggests.

Udinese — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.10 PPG, Udinese 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 2 for Udinese and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Empoli in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

Udinese in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 34% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 30% | Udinese 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and Udinese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.643 / defence 0.770 | Udinese attack 0.919 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.320. Empoli's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Empoli games / 50 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Udinese 32%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Udinese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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