Como 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Como welcome Bologna to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Como — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Como at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Como are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bologna away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Como at 1.60 PPG versus Bologna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 54% versus Bologna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 54% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Bologna attack 0.880 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.116. Data: built from Como's last 3 games and Bologna's last 41.
Result probabilities: Como 36% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.80 | Draw 3.01 | Bologna 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Como 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 36% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Como 1.23 / Bologna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Bologna attack 0.880 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Como (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Como vs Bologna kick off?
Como vs Bologna kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Bologna?
Como 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Como vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Bologna part of?
Como vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Como a 36% chance of winning, Bologna a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Como and Bologna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Como vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Como's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Como's last 3 games and Bologna's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.01
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Como xG
Total xG
2.35
1.13
Bologna xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Como and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Como and 1.13 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Como have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 21W 11D 9L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 18W 16D 7L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.80 PPG, Bologna on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Como have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 19 home games (12W 5D 2L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 6W 8D 5L from their last 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.37 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
Como (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Como vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Como and Bologna in coming into this match?
Como have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 games (1.80 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 16D 7L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Bologna away?
Como's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 2.16 PPG; Bologna away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Como or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bologna in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Como
2
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Bologna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 0, Bologna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Como 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Como and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 63%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Como) and 53% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna in 32%; Bologna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Como's games and 53% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Como and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Como's matches and 53% of Bologna's.
Do Como and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Como's recent matches and 68% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 4, as Como and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Bologna attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 36% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31%, with Como to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 54%, Bologna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.80 PPG, Bologna 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Como (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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