Cagliari 0-4 Napoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Cagliari, 1.10 for Napoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Napoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Napoli — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 63% versus Napoli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Napoli 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.39 xG and Napoli 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.898 / defence 1.020 | Napoli attack 0.955 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Cagliari games / 41 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 34% | Napoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Napoli 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 90% | Napoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 34% | Napoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Cagliari 1.39 / Napoli 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.898 / def 1.020 | Napoli attack 0.955 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Napoli xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Napoli kick off?
Cagliari vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Cagliari 0 - 4 Napoli.
Where is Cagliari vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Napoli part of?
Cagliari vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 41% chance of winning, Napoli a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Napoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.90) and Napoli's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (0.95x) against Cagliari's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.97
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Napoli xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.07 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 8W 14D 19L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli's form line: 15W 14D 12L from 41 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (6W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Napoli have gone 7W 7D 6L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.46 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Napoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 8W 14D 19L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Napoli have gone 15W 14D 12L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.35 PPG; Napoli away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Cagliari, 50% for Napoli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cagliari) and 50% (Napoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Napoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cagliari's matches and 50% of Napoli's.
Do Cagliari and Napoli tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Napoli in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cagliari 0-4 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.39 xG and Napoli 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Napoli outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Napoli attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 41% | Draw 34% | Napoli 25%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Napoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Napoli 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.