Genoa 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Genoa take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Genoa's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 2 for AS Roma and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | AS Roma 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.02 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.975 / defence 1.116 | AS Roma attack 0.873 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.098. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Genoa games / 41 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | AS Roma 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | AS Roma 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Genoa 1.02 / AS Roma 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.975 / def 1.116 | AS Roma attack 0.873 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Genoa 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 31% chance of winning, AS Roma a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.87x) against Genoa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
36%
2.77
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.09
1.07
AS Roma xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Genoa and 1.07 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 14D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.59 PPG from 41 outings (18W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Genoa against 1.59 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.61 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 18W 11D 12L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
Genoa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.48 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 57%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Genoa) and 62% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Genoa's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Genoa's recent games and 62% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.02 xG and AS Roma 1.07 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 0.87 / defence 0.78, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 31% | Draw 36% | AS Roma 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, AS Roma 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.29 PPG, AS Roma 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.