Monza 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 36%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Monza vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Bologna travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Bologna and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bologna trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 38% | Bologna 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.30 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.831 / defence 1.028 | Bologna attack 0.958 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Monza games / 42 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Bologna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Monza 60% | Bologna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Monza 1.30 / Bologna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.831 / def 1.028 | Bologna attack 0.958 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Monza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Bologna kick off?
Monza vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Bologna?
Monza 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Monza vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Bologna part of?
Monza vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 36% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 2 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Monza and Bologna in?
Monza (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
36%
2.75
35%
2.89
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Monza xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Bologna xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Monza and 1.14 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 11W 15D 16L from 42 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 7L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 6W 10D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.38 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Bologna in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 17D 7L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.19 PPG; Bologna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Bologna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Monza's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Monza
2
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Bologna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 52%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Monza's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Bologna tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.30 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Bologna attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 36% | Draw 35% | Bologna 29%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 38%, Bologna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.