Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Cremonese in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cagliari's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Cagliari, 0.40 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2026, ended Cagliari 2–2 Cremonese — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Cremonese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Cremonese 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.881 / defence 0.988 | Cremonese attack 0.740 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.167. Cremonese's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Cagliari's last 69 games and Cremonese's last 31.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.08 | Draw 3.56 | Cremonese 4.19. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Cremonese 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.881 / def 0.988 | Cremonese attack 0.740 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cremonese xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Cremonese kick off?
Cagliari vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Cagliari 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Cagliari vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Cremonese part of?
Cagliari vs Cremonese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cagliari and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Cagliari vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.74x) against Cagliari's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 69 games and Cremonese's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.19
0.85
Cremonese xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.85 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 16W 18D 35L from 69 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 24L across 69 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cagliari against 1.29 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 10W 8D 16L from their last 34 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 8D 14L across their last 34 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
Cagliari (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Cagliari vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 18D 35L in their last 69 games (0.96 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 22W 23D 24L in their last 69 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.12 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Cremonese?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Cremonese?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 41%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cagliari) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 38% of games; Cremonese in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cagliari's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cagliari and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cagliari's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Cagliari's recent matches and 62% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Cremonese 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Cremonese 0.85 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Cremonese attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.96 PPG, Cremonese 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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