Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sassuolo are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genoa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sassuolo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Genoa have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Sassuolo have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Genoa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 51% versus Sassuolo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 46% | Sassuolo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.40 xG and Sassuolo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.061 / defence 1.087 | Sassuolo attack 0.998 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.173. Data: 69 Genoa games / 31 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 40% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Genoa dominate the H2H record, yet Sassuolo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sassuolo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Sassuolo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 40% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Genoa 1.40 / Sassuolo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.061 / def 1.087 | Sassuolo attack 0.998 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Genoa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sassuolo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Genoa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Genoa 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Genoa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sassuolo part of?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 40% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Genoa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 3W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.86
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Sassuolo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Genoa and 1.27 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 22D 29L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 37W 13D 19L from 69 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Sassuolo are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 9L from 34 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.68 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 18W 22D 29L in their last 69 games (1.10 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 37W 13D 19L in their last 69 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.18 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Genoa or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Genoa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 47%, Sassuolo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Genoa) and 53% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genoa's recent matches and 62% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Genoa's recent games and 53% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.40 xG and Sassuolo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Sassuolo attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 40% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.