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Poisson rates Bologna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Cremonese (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Cremonese's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Bologna arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cremonese lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Cremonese winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Bologna 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.79 xG and Bologna 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.660 / defence 1.309 | Bologna attack 1.152 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.180. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Cremonese games / 68 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 16% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Bologna 70%.

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