Bologna 2-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 39%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Lecce have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lecce away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Bologna hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Lecce and 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Bologna 2–2 Lecce — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Bologna an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Lecce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Lecce 39%). Note also that Lecce surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.90 xG and Lecce 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.733 / defence 1.171 | Lecce attack 0.780 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.167. Bologna's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Lecce's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Bologna's last 69 games and Lecce's last 69.
Result probabilities: Bologna 30% | Draw 31% | Lecce 39%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.33 | Draw 3.22 | Lecce 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Lecce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Lecce 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 30% | Draw 31% | Lecce 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Bologna 0.90 / Lecce 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.733 / def 1.171 | Lecce attack 0.780 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Lecce (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lecce xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Lecce FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Bologna 2 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Bologna vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 30% chance of winning, Lecce a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 69 games and Lecce's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.22
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.96
1.06
Lecce xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Bologna and 1.06 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 29W 20D 20L from 69 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 38L across 69 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 15W 9D 10L from their last 34 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 7W 6D 21L across their last 34 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.70 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Lecce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 29W 20D 20L in their last 69 games (1.55 PPG), while Lecce have gone 15W 16D 38L in their last 69 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.59 PPG; Lecce away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lecce in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bologna have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won Bologna 4-0 Lecce.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Lecce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 6, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lecce 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Lecce 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 32% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lecce in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Lecce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 38% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Lecce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 32% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lecce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 62% of Lecce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.90 xG and Lecce 1.06 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against Lecce attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 30% | Draw 31% | Lecce 39%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lecce's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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