🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna and Cagliari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights