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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights