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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AC Milan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat Bologna 0-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.60 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bologna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AC Milan outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against AC Milan attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, AC Milan 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

AC Milan's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.53 PPG, AC Milan 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights