Genoa 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Genoa welcome Salernitana to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Genoa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Salernitana and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Salernitana trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 38% versus Salernitana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Salernitana 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.77 xG and Salernitana 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.047 / defence 1.187 | Salernitana attack 0.789 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.166. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Genoa games / 47 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 52% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Salernitana 4.55. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 52% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Genoa 1.77 / Salernitana 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.047 / def 1.187 | Salernitana attack 0.789 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Genoa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Salernitana xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Salernitana kick off?
Genoa vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Salernitana?
Genoa 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Genoa vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Salernitana part of?
Genoa vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 52% chance of winning, Salernitana a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genoa and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Salernitana?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Genoa and Salernitana in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.86
1.09
Salernitana xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
26.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Genoa and 1.09 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 23W 13D 11L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana's form line: 9W 19D 19L from 47 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genoa are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genoa have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 2W 10D 11L from 23 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.15 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 23W 13D 11L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 9W 19D 19L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Salernitana away?
Genoa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.00 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Genoa or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Salernitana in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Genoa's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Salernitana?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 35%, Salernitana 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Genoa) and 48% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Salernitana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Genoa's recent matches and 56% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Salernitana tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.77 xG and Salernitana 1.09 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Salernitana attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 52% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 22%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Salernitana 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salernitana's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.