UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to UCD Bowl to take on UCD. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, UCD have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, UCD have posted 2W 2D 6L at UCD Bowl — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 7 encounters against UCD's 0 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2023, ended 0–7 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
UCD trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus St Patrick's Athl. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 54% | St Patrick's Athl. 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.08 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.739 / defence 1.484 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.106. UCD's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 UCD games / 63 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 59%. Fair-value odds: UCD 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: UCD 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 18% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG UCD 1.08 / St Patrick's Athl. 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.739 / def 1.484 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
UCD xG
Expected Goals
2.07
St Patrick's Athl. xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 August 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
UCD 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 18% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both UCD and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (7 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 7W.
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.74x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus UCD's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
18%
5.50
22%
4.47
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
UCD xG
Total xG
3.15
2.07
St Patrick's Athl. xG
5.50
18%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
13%
7.95
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
2%
43.70
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for UCD and 2.07 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
UCD's recent record stands at 9W 12D 42L from 63 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 19L across 63 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, UCD have managed 6W 7D 18L from 31 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 14W 6D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
UCD are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.68 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 12D 42L in their last 63 games (0.62 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 32W 12D 19L in their last 63 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.81 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.55 PPG.
Have UCD or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
UCD's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 45%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (UCD) and 61% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of UCD's recent matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of UCD's recent games and 61% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out UCD 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 0-1 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.08 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 2.07 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. UCD fell 1.1 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.74 / defence 1.48 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.26 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 18% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 59%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.