Bohemians 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians, 1.50 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 55% versus Derry City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 45% | Derry City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.56 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.258 / defence 1.036 | Derry City attack 1.022 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.106. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Bohemians games / 62 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 3.57. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 40% | Derry City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Derry City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Bohemians 1.56 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.258 / def 1.036 | Derry City attack 1.022 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 45% chance of winning, Derry City a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.69
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Derry City xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 25W 16D 21L from 62 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 31W 19D 12L across 62 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bohemians against 1.81 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 15W 6D 9L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 16W 8D 6L across 30 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 games (1.47 PPG), while Derry City have gone 31W 19D 12L in their last 62 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.70 PPG; Derry City away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Derry City in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 57%, Derry City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bohemians) and 40% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bohemians's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bohemians's recent games and 40% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derry City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 28, as Bohemians and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.56 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 45% | Draw 27% | Derry City 28%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 45%, Derry City 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.47 PPG, Derry City 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.