Cork City 1-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cork City at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cork City vs UCD encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Cork City welcome UCD to Turner's Cross. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cork City — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cork City at Turner's Cross this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, UCD stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
UCD's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 10L across 10 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Cork City have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cork City, 1 for UCD and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with UCD winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cork City in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
UCD in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 50% versus UCD 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | UCD 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.99 xG and UCD 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.812 / defence 1.132 | UCD attack 0.663 / defence 1.656. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.152. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.656 — this is suppressing Cork City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Cork City games / 61 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 63% | Draw 21% | UCD 15%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | UCD 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cork City (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cork City as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cork City 60% | UCD 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 63% | Draw 21% | UCD 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Cork City 1.99 / UCD 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.812 / def 1.132 | UCD attack 0.663 / def 1.656 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Cork City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
UCD xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs UCD kick off?
Cork City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs UCD?
Cork City 1 - 1 UCD.
Where is Cork City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs UCD part of?
Cork City vs UCD is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 63% chance of winning, UCD a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cork City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cork City and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and UCD?
Record (2 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 0 | UCD 1W.
What form are Cork City and UCD in?
Cork City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cork City's attack rating (0.81) and UCD's defence rating (1.66), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cork City Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.73
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.85
0.86
UCD xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
47.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Cork City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Cork City and 0.86 for UCD, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Cork City have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 5D 15L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cork City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
UCD's form line: 3W 3D 20L from 26 games, 0.46 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cork City are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against UCD.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cork City have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, UCD have gone 0W 1D 12L from 13 away games — 0.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cork City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.58 scored and 2.54 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Blended
UCD
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and UCD in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while UCD have gone 3W 3D 20L in their last 26 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or UCD away?
Cork City's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.31 PPG; UCD away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting UCD specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cork City
1
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and UCD?
From 4 meetings on record, Cork City have won 2, UCD have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and UCD?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 54%, UCD 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Cork City and 77% for UCD. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; UCD in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cork City's recent matches and 46% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cork City's matches and 77% of UCD's.
Do Cork City and UCD tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, UCD in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City and UCD share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 27, as Cork City and UCD drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.99 xG and UCD 0.86 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cork City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.66, drawn from 26/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 63% | Draw 21% | UCD 15%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, UCD 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
UCD's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cork City arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.