Sligo Rovers 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Showgrounds plays host to Sligo Rovers versus Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne (all games): 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Shelbourne have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) — Sligo Rovers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Shelbourne in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 54% versus Shelbourne 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 51% | Shelbourne 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sligo Rovers surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Shelbourne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.84 xG and Shelbourne 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.926 / defence 1.099 | Shelbourne attack 1.106 / defence 0.631. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.086. Shelbourne bring a tight defence (rating 0.631, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sligo Rovers's projected output down. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 63 games and Shelbourne's last 63.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 24% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 48%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 4.22 | Draw 3.49 | Shelbourne 2.10. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 30% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 28 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 24% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Sligo Rovers 0.84 / Shelbourne 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.926 / def 1.099 | Shelbourne attack 1.106 / def 0.631 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shelbourne xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 28) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 24% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.11x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 63 games and Shelbourne's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
24%
4.22
29%
3.49
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.17
1.32
Shelbourne xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.32 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 16D 25L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.29 PPG from 63 outings (19W 24D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.29 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 11D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 19W 24D 20L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shelbourne away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers on 9 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 48%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sligo Rovers) and 36% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 39%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 32% of games; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 36% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 52% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.84 xG and Shelbourne 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Shelbourne attack 1.11 / defence 0.63, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 24% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 48%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 51%, Shelbourne 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.30 PPG, Shelbourne 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.