St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waterford have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Waterford 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / defence 0.874 | Waterford attack 0.918 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.008. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 46 games and Waterford's last 10.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.93 | Draw 3.66 | Waterford 4.78. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 11 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 / Waterford 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.140 / def 0.874 | Waterford attack 0.918 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Waterford xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 11) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 52% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.14) and Waterford's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.92x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 46 games and Waterford's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.66
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.25
0.81
Waterford xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.81 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W.
Put side by side, Waterford are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St Patrick's Athl..
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Waterford on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford finished level at 1-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Waterford 0.81 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Waterford attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Draw 27% | Waterford 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.