Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 47%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2024, ended Sligo Rovers 5–0 Dundalk — a Sligo Rovers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Dundalk 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sligo Rovers surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.22 xG and Dundalk 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.887 / defence 0.834 | Dundalk attack 0.890 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.008. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 45 games and Dundalk's last 46.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 47% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.13 | Draw 3.29 | Dundalk 4.43. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 10% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 11 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 47% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.22 / Dundalk 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.887 / def 0.834 | Dundalk attack 0.890 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Dundalk xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 11) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 47% chance of winning, Dundalk a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.89x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.89x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 45 games and Dundalk's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.29
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.96
0.75
Dundalk xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.75 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 24W 17D 31L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 34W 19D 19L from 72 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 36 home games (16W 9D 11L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 12W 9D 15L from their last 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 11, as Sligo Rovers and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.22 xG and Dundalk 0.75 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Dundalk attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 47% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.