Derry City 1-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Derry City, 2.20 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Shamrock Rovers in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.56 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.436 / defence 0.936 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.028 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.008. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Derry City games / 45 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 4.35. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 30% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Derry City 1.56 / Shamrock Rovers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.436 / def 0.936 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.028 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Derry City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 April 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 51% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Derry City's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.89
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.53
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Derry City and 0.97 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 36W 23D 13L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Derry City against 2.10 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (17W 13D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 games (1.82 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.78 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Derry City) and 33% (Shamrock Rovers) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Derry City and 31% for Shamrock Rovers.
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Derry City's recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 1-3 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.56 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.44 / defence 0.94 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 51% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 23%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Shamrock Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.82 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.