Dundalk 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dundalk 1.80 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Dundalk's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
It is worth noting that St Patrick's Athl. have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.81 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.690 / defence 1.187 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.864 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.074. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Dundalk games / 45 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 27% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 27% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Dundalk 0.81 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.690 / def 1.187 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.864 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
St Patrick's Athl. xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 27% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.69x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
27%
3.73
31%
3.21
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.92
1.10
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 16.2 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.10 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 19D 19L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (37W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.68 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 22W 10D 4L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.58 points per game from 36 outings (17W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Dundalk and 58% for St Patrick's Athl.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dundalk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 0-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.81 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.10 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dundalk fell 0.8 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.69 / defence 1.19 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 27% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.68 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.