Dundalk 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Dundalk, 1.10 for Sligo Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dundalk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sligo Rovers in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Dundalk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 52% versus Sligo Rovers 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 52% | Sligo Rovers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.92 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.206 / defence 1.034 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.959 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.152. Data: 62 Dundalk games / 62 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 22%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Sligo Rovers 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Sligo Rovers 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Dundalk 1.92 / Sligo Rovers 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.206 / def 1.034 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.959 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sligo Rovers xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 55% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 0 | Sligo Rovers 0W.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.96x) against Dundalk's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.45
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.06
1.14
Sligo Rovers xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
3%
30.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.14 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 28W 19D 15L from 62 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 24L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Dundalk against 1.32 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 18W 10D 3L from 31 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 28W 19D 15L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.06 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 61%, Sligo Rovers 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 55% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Dundalk's games and 61% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 55% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.92 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.14 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 55% | Draw 22% | Sligo Rovers 22%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 52%, Sligo Rovers 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.66 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.