Sligo Rovers 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sligo Rovers face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Sligo Rovers (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sligo Rovers, 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sligo Rovers edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Sligo Rovers 2–1 Shamrock Rovers — a Sligo Rovers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.57 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.913 / defence 1.246 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.189 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.050. Sligo Rovers's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 41 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 41.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 24% | Shamrock Rovers 38%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.60 | Draw 4.18 | Shamrock Rovers 2.66. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sligo Rovers 38% and Shamrock Rovers 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches — though recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 24% | Shamrock Rovers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.57 / Shamrock Rovers 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.913 / def 1.246 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.189 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Shamrock Rovers xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 38% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.91x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.19x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 41 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.18
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
3.13
1.55
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.55 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 18D 30L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sligo Rovers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 11L from their last 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.44 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo Rovers on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 61% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Sligo Rovers 0-2 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.57 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.55 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.19 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 24% | Shamrock Rovers 38%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.