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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Weavers Park, Drogheda United have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Shamrock Rovers hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Shamrock Rovers have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Statistical Overview

Drogheda United's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 12W 15D 9L from 36 matches. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 14 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 36 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-1-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Shamrock Rovers show 19W 9D 8L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Shamrock Rovers have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Drogheda United lead on clean sheets this season (14 vs 12). Penalty activity: Drogheda United 3/3 vs Shamrock Rovers 1/1 this season.

Trading Data

Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.38 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.923 / defence 1.003 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.225 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Drogheda United games / 42 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 39% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Shamrock Rovers 70% BTTS from recent games.

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