Sligo Rovers 2-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sligo Rovers have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dundalk's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Sligo Rovers's favour (1.50 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2026, ended Sligo Rovers 0–1 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 53% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 50% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.23 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.702 / defence 0.951 | Dundalk attack 1.051 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.175. Sligo Rovers's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 48 games and Dundalk's last 12.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 33%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.79 | Draw 3.24 | Dundalk 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 13 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.23 / Dundalk 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.702 / def 0.951 | Dundalk attack 1.051 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dundalk xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 13) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Dundalk a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.70x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.05x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 48 games and Dundalk's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.24
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.40
1.17
Dundalk xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.17 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 11W 8D 17L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 5W 11D 20L from 36 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Sligo Rovers are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 1W 6D 11L from their last 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.17 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 56%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sligo Rovers) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 28% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sligo Rovers's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 72% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 2-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.23 xG and Dundalk 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against Dundalk attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 33%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.