Sligo Rovers 3-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 30 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 7W 1D 2L at The Showgrounds — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.30 for Bohemians. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 47% versus Bohemians 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.91 xG and Bohemians 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.803 / defence 1.138 | Bohemians attack 0.954 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.113. Data: 57 Sligo Rovers games / 57 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 28% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 43%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 28% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.91 / Bohemians 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.803 / def 1.138 | Bohemians attack 0.954 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Bohemians xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 June 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 3 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.80x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.95x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
28%
3.61
29%
3.40
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Bohemians xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.21 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 19D 23L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.36 PPG from 72 outings (26W 20D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.36 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 17W 10D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.14 points per game from 36 outings (10W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 64%.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 23L in their last 72 games (1.51 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.69 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 47%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sligo Rovers's games and 64% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 3-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.91 xG and Bohemians 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 28% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 43%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 40%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.51 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.