Bohemians 2-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 1.00 PPG clear of Bohemians over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus Shamrock Rovers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | Shamrock Rovers 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Shamrock Rovers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.82 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.097 / defence 0.877 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.328 / defence 0.531. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.150. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.531, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bohemians's projected output down. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack rating of 1.328, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Data: built from Bohemians's last 56 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 57.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 4.38 | Draw 3.55 | Shamrock Rovers 2.04. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 50% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 21 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Bohemians 0.82 / Shamrock Rovers 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.097 / def 0.877 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.328 / def 0.531 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 23 June 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 21) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 23% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.10x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.53x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.33x) against Bohemians's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 56 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
23%
4.38
28%
3.55
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.15
1.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.5 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.34 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 48W 13D 11L across 72 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 16W 9D 11L from their last 36 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 20W 6D 10L across their last 36 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
0
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bohemians's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bohemians's recent matches and 53% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 2-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.82 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.34 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.33 / defence 0.53, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 23% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 49%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.