Bohemians 3-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dundalk's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 55% versus Dundalk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Dundalk 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.49 xG and Dundalk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.124 / defence 0.980 | Dundalk attack 0.968 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.071. Data: built from Bohemians's last 58 games and Dundalk's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.08 | Draw 3.83 | Dundalk 3.86. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 50% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 23 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bohemians 1.49 / Dundalk 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.124 / def 0.980 | Dundalk attack 0.968 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dundalk xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 7 July 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 3 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 23) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 48% chance of winning, Dundalk a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.97x) against Bohemians's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 58 games and Dundalk's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.50
1.02
Dundalk xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
17.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.02 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 58 games, going 22W 15D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.72 PPG from 58 outings (28W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bohemians against 1.72 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 12W 7D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.41 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
Bohemians (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.54 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dundalk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Dundalk, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 2 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2026: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 57%, Dundalk 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bohemians) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 32%; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bohemians's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bohemians's recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Dundalk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 3-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.49 xG and Dundalk 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Dundalk attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Dundalk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.40 PPG, Dundalk 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.